By Sam Tucker
Welp, as we round the corner off of dry January and into “Fit February,” it’s time once again for the completely subjective, yet somehow all-important, OSCAR® nominations. I know this is a divisive topic amongst us cinephiles – one side being obsessed and tracking them yearly, and the other side being indifferent or even downright hostile towards The Academy!
Personally, I fall right in the middle – I think it’s an important ceremony to track where “public opinion” is on the best and brightest of my favorite (only?) media that I consume, but understand the arbitrary nature of it. And if you have your own hot takes, you should participate in IPH’s OSCAR® Ballot Contest, and even come on down to the OSCARS® Viewing Party & Fundraiser on Sunday, March 15.
Instead of just giving a simple opinion, I’m breaking down the major categories “Tucker Style” with three sub-categories:
- Woulda: What I predict the voting majority will choose.
- Shoulda: What I believe truly deserves the win.
- Coulda: The performances or films the OSCARS® missed (snubs, also-rans, etc.).
Put on your bow ties and pour the champagne… here we go!
BEST PICTURE
| Category | Prediction / Opinion | Rationale |
| Woulda | ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER | An expected lock. PTA, Leo, and Benecio are Academy darlings. I didn’t like it—thought it was a low point for PTA—but the fervor is real. |
| Shoulda | SINNERS | Absolutely deserved the hype. One of the most memorable cinema experiences of the year. A stretch to think The Academy will choose a vampire musical for Best Picture, though. |
| Coulda | WEAPONS | The most memorable cinema experience of the year. A banger sophomore effort from former Whitest Kid U’Know Zach Cregger, showing his unique style – huge future potential. |
BEST DIRECTOR
| Category | Prediction / Opinion | Rationale |
| Woulda | PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON – OBAA | A critical darling with a movie that made money. This may be too obvious, and if there’s hope for OBAA detractors, it won’t sweep the two biggest awards. |
| Shoulda/Coulda | GUILLERMO DEL TORO – FRANKENSTEIN | GDT has exactly one move and has nearly perfected it. He was robbed with NIGHTMARE ALLEY, and basing this on one of the most famous texts ever should have at least earned him a nomination. |
BEST ACTOR
| Category | Prediction / Opinion | Rationale |
| Woulda | LEONARDO DI CAPRIO – OBAA | He plays himself in every role, which is easy to like. THE REVENANT win/nomination was mostly derided, this may be a makeup award. |
| Shoulda | MICHAEL B JORDAN – SINNERS | This one may be closer than expected, as The Academy favors performers who handle dual roles. The subject matter, however, might be hard to stomach for the voting body. |
| Coulda | JOEL EDGERTON – TRAIN DREAMS | A journeyman actor who plays everything from thugs to priests. Unfortunately is likely one of his last big chances for a major award. The movie works only because he holds your attention in every frame. |
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
| Category | Prediction / Opinion | Rationale |
| Woulda | SEAN PENN – OBAA | Everyone loves a redemption story and a RDJ-style rise and fall. People call this the best performance of the year, which I completely disagree with—it’s a broad caricature that gives away everything from Scene 1A. |
| Shoulda | BENECIO DEL TORO – OBAA | I’ll give OBAA credit here: Sensai is easily the best part of the movie. He carries every scene with range, going from fun and goofy to potentially dangerous. He might lose due to a split vote. |
| Coulda | JOSH O’CONNOR – WAKE UP DEAD MAN | I’m not “media literate” but I know he was great, challenging himself with a 180-degree turn in this role vs CHALLENGERS. Likely was too broad of a movie/part to be seriously considered, still think he has massive potential |
BEST ACTRESS
| Category | Prediction / Opinion | Rationale |
| Woulda/Shoulda | ROSE BYRNE – IF I HAD LEGS I WOULD KICK YOU | This divisive movie doesn’t work without her performance, where she isn’t afraid to be “ugly” in looks, actions, and soul (think Witherspoon in WILD, not Theron in MONSTER). She has a very strong chance of taking this home. |
| Coulda | CATE BLANCHETT – BLACK BAG | Would never happen, but it would be awesome to see this dialed-in performance in a dialed-in movie get a nod. |
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| Category | Prediction / Opinion | Rationale |
| Woulda | ??? | I’m stumped. I would drop Elle Fanning to give Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas a better shot instead of splitting the vote. Teyana Taylor or Chase Infiniti should have been promoted to Best Actress, which is hurting Teyana’s chances here. |
| Shoulda | WUNMI MOSAKU – SINNERS | A performance that jumps off the screen. Her power and presence are on full display, bringing so much out of MBJ—sexually, emotionally, and in her silence. In a different year, this would easily be the one to beat. |
| Coulda | PAMELA ANDERSON – THE NAKED GUN | YES, I know this is insane. But who’s the writer versus the reader? Flip all my negatives for Sean Penn 180 degrees—the lack of nuance is the performance here. She “understood the assignment.” |
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, I think it will come down to a 1-v-1 showdown between ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and SINNERS, which is a shame given the breadth of great work this year. But as Mother Tucker always says, “sometimes a buffet of choices is Brazilian Steakhouse, sometimes it’s Golden Corral.” (Note: She probably never said that, but it sounds like something she might.)
So this March 15, head over to the IPH, keep your phone on to tag us in your stories, and enjoy a nice beverage during a time where The Academy may actually make the right choices!
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